Planning Iraq's Future Cities: Lessons from the 2025 Census

The Iraqi General Population and Housing Census (2024-2025) revealed critical demographic indicators that should form the cornerstone of urban and development policy formulation in the coming years. The problem is no longer limited to numbers. Rather, it provides a window into the main challenges and potential opportunities that can be intelligently exploited through appropriate management and planning.

First: Urban Expansion and Pressure on Large Cities

Census data indicate that 70.17% of the Iraqi population lives in urban areas, compared to only 29.83% in rural areas. This imbalance puts enormous pressure on urban infrastructure, including transportation, housing, water and sanitation networks, and health and education services. Consequently, redistributing development and stimulating settlement in small and medium-sized cities is becoming a strategic necessity, not just a technical option.

Second: The structure of the youth population and the need to prepare for the future

People under the age of 15 constitute approximately 36% of the population, a clear indication that Iraq is facing an emerging demographic wave that will soon require more schools, universities, and job opportunities. Investing in people, from childhood through their entry into the labor market, must be a national priority. Creating an urban environment that encourages creativity and production is as essential as building walls and roads.

Third: Increasing the dependency ratio and achieving economic balance.

The overall dependency ratio stands at 627 dependents per 1,000 economically active people, reflecting the burden placed on the working class. This ratio underscores the need for policies that stimulate economic growth and expand the employment base, particularly in productive sectors and the green economy, to reduce the gap between those who work and those who depend on others.

Fourth: A stable demographic gender balance.

Census data reveal a relative balance between men (50.22%) and women (49.78%), which allows for balanced planning of the distribution of resources and opportunities between the sexes. This balance must be reflected in housing, education, health, and economic and social empowerment policies.

Fifth: Characteristics of an Emerging Demographic Aging

Although the percentage of elderly people (65 and over) is still relatively low, at 3.66%, indicators confirm that this percentage will increase in the coming decades. This requires prior preparation for specialized health systems, affordable housing for the elderly, and adequate social security, ensuring human dignity in later life.

In Conclusion: Towards Reality-Based Urban Planning

Reading these indicators should not be an abstract statistical exercise but rather a genuine call for a flexible, participatory, and innovative urban planning model that connects census figures to land and housing policies, social reality, and economic vision. Iraqi cities remain trapped in haphazard accumulation and development disparities without adapting to demographic changes and incorporating them into the planning structure.

• It is time for us to create cities that reflect their reality and build their future with planning that depends on:

• Developing cities sustainably while reducing slums.

• Focusing on medium-sized and small towns to minimize pressure on large cities.

• Encouraging rural development and improving infrastructure to reduce migration to cities.

• Developing flexible and multi-age housing policies.

• Linking population census to economic and environmental planning ensures a balance between resource supply and demand.